Author: Justin

bookmark_borderThe Red Drizzle

Posted on by Justin
My Political Hat

(I stole that headline from Charlie Sykes over at The Bulwark. If you aren’t subscribed and reading their newsletters, you are not paying attention to politics.)

Overall, last night was a good night for America. It also exposed and clarified some things for the future.

The Good

  • Senator Fetterman. Governor Shapiro. Democratic Trifectas in Maryland and Massachusetts. Kansas Governor. Democrats likely retaining the Senate and possibly retaining the House. All this in a midterm election that historically should have gone to the Republicans across the board.

The Clarifying

  • Florida is cemented as a Red State and the complete Democratic collapse is a national embarrassment. Democrats didn’t spend enough money and their infrastructure was atrophied to nonexistent. Val Demmings and Charlie Crist put forth valiant efforts, but nothing could overcome the demographics of an aging conservative population who choose to live in Florida. Don’t like wearing a mask in the pandemic? Stop snowbirding and just stay. Rich and ready to retire? Same. It might be time for Democrats to stop trying to kick that football.

Winners

  • Ron DeSantis. He is now the de facto standard-bearer of the Republican Party. 45* will be coming for him. Expect his announcement on the 15th (if it still happens) to be fiery and directed at DeSantis.

Losers

  • Trumpism and MAGA Republicans. American voters – particularly the young people – may have finally repudiated this doomsday cult.
  • Anyone who thought there would be a Red Wave. If you looked at the polls, you can be partially forgiven. If you listened to the voters, you knew they were concerned about two things: abortion and the future of democracy in America. Enough showed up to vote accordingly that I feel comfortable predicting our democracy will last until at least 2024.

bookmark_borderThe Final Debate

Posted on by Justin

I don’t know about you, but I have already voted. So far, 50 million Americans have cast their ballots through mail-in/absentee/dropoff and in-person early voting. Across several polls, at most 4% of likely voters are undecided (and we know that a third to a half of all undecided voters are actually decided or will vote their party anyway). In other words, this thing is done. The debate tonight is nothing but spectacle.

Spectacle can be important. (Don’t worry, we aren’t going too far down a Marxist/Situationist hole here.) It can draw attention and reinforce norms. But it can also be destructive.

Donald Trump is an abuser. There is no reason to allow him to continue to cause harm. He will say and do anything to get reelected.

I observed last time that there are no technological solutions to his behavior. There is no reason to expect that to be different tonight. It is bad enough that he will subject Joe Biden to this onslaught. The public should not watch it. No votes will be changed, and we will all be worse off for the experience.

bookmark_borderThe 2020 General Election

Posted on by Justin

This place has been in cold storage for the past eight years. A lot has changed in that time. Obama is no longer President. We elected a RINO (but not like we usually mean that). And honestly a list of all of the changes before 2020 wouldn’t take up as much space as what has happened so far this year.

Personally, I’ve left government work and have been in private practice at my own firm since 2013. I still represent criminal defendants, and I also practice family law. I’m also still relatively plugged-in politically.

Part of what I want to do here is explore some of what I’ve been thinking, maybe highlight a few stories I think aren’t getting the coverage they should (or that can’t be responsibly covered at all), and I hope to document the next few months. It promises to be a momentous experience, and the potential for making history in real-time is undeniable. 

Let’s put on our Political Hats and get to it!

bookmark_borderTime Out!

Posted on by Justin

I’m taking a few weeks off to attend to some work- and life-related things.

In the meantime, enjoy this video clip. It is completely unrelated to politics and is sure to make you smile!

bookmark_borderWhat Is At Stake

Posted on by Justin

There are a lot of issues to be decided in this election, and the differences between the major-party candidates have not been starker in recent times, but there is one question that stands out for me: can a “post-truth” candidate win the Presidency?

This has implications down the ballot for the foreseeable future. If Romney can pull it off, the sky is the limit for future campaigns. We’ll see the same tactic down-ballot. Eventually, Democrats will adopt the same tactics – adapt or die – and we will all be the worse for it.

If Romney pulls this off, I will blame the American voters. We will get what we deserve.

It may already be too late. That the race is as close as it is means running a “post-truth” campaign can get you within striking distance of office. Who wouldn’t want to run a strategy with an end result like that?

bookmark_borderRules for Voting

Posted on by Justin

This information comes courtesy of Centre County’s Office of Elections and Voter Registration. The Director, Joyce McKinley, provided this information to me in an email on October 20th, after I inquired into how Centre County would be implementing Judge Simpson’s ruling in October suspending key aspects of the “Papers, Please” voter suppression law.

This is what you should expect at your polls today. If your experience is contrary to these guidelines, speak up. Ask to see a supervisor. If they can’t help you or won’t let you vote, go higher. If you don’t know how, call someone who does (like me; I’m available via telephone, text, email, or facebook and will have my phone on me all day). Most importantly, don’t leave without casting your vote. These new laws were designed to keep people from voting. Don’t become a statistic.

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Centre County will be complying with the order regarding the ID:  The poll workers were correct in the primary election to ask for ID etc.  and that is the order that was issued on October 2, 2012.  All boards will be instructed on what is required at the training sessions being held the week of Oct. 29, 2012.

Their instructions will be and this has been sent to each county by the Department of State clarifying the effect of the Commonwealth Court’s ruling.

SOFT ROLLOUT – On Election Day, all voters who come into the polling place must be asked but will not be required to show an acceptable form of phto ID.  If a voter does not present an acceptable form of photo ID the poll worker must give the voter a copy of the handout (each polling places will have this handout).  In orther words the process will work just as it did in the Primary.

IDENTIFICATION FOR “FIRST TIME VOTER”   “First time voter” requirements that were in place prior to Sept. 17, 2012 will apply in the Nov. 6, 2012 General Election.  Required under the Help America Vote Act and/or the Pennsylvania Election Code will still be required to provide identification and the acceptable forms of ID for first time voters will be posted in each polling location.

You can obtain additional information on the process at www.votespa.com

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bookmark_borderJon Husted Must Go

Posted on by Justin

“Public Service” means serving the public. This is a circular definition, to be sure, but at the core it means doing your job. It does not mean putting the interests of your political party before those of your constituents. When you are the top election official in a state, you have an obligation to ensure the elections under your jurisdiction are conducted properly. Perhaps the most sacred aspect of this secular duty is to ensure the individual right to vote is protected.

A sane society would have thrown someone like Jon Husted in jail by now, or would have at least cast him out into the (political and perhaps literal) cold.

That he is still able to do things like this says as much if not more about us as it does about Secretary Husted.

bookmark_borderMy Electoral Vote Prediction

Posted on by Justin

When I started seriously thinking about this map two weeks ago, I was a lot more conservative in my prediction of how much President Obama would win by. Over the past week, however, I see things breaking for the President. On Tuesday I think President Obama will win 329 Electoral votes to Governor Romney’s 209 Electoral votes. I break it down in the map below.

bookmark_borderHostage Negotiator In Chief

Posted on by Justin

Shorter Romney: Nice country you have there. Sure would be a shame if something were to happen to it.

This has been the GOP’s modus operandi in Congress, but now Mitt Romney is embracing it as what is campaign is calling his “closing argument:”

Romney said that Obama “promised to be a post-partisan president, but he became the most partisan” and that his bitter relations with the House GOP could threaten the economy. As his chief example, he pointed to a crisis created entirely by his own party’s choice — Republican lawmakers’ ongoing threat to reject a debt ceiling increase. Economists warn that a failure to pass such a measure would have immediate and catastrophic consequences for the recovery.

If he pulls this off — if Romney manages to get elected running a fact-free, post-reality, dada performance art campaign — we’re in for a wild few decades. If candidates believe they can win without having to engage with peksy things like the facts, one can only begin to speculate about the claims that will be made in the next election. This is cynical, nihilistic politics at its worst.

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